Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effecs
AbstractInferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag length is imposed on each regime. In this paper we evaluate the properties of test statistics for detecting the presence of threshold effects in autoregressive models when this model uncertainty is taken into account. We show that this approach may lead to important distortions when the underlying model has truly threshold effects by establishing the limiting properties of the estimated lag length in the mispecified linear autoregressive fit and assessing the impact of this model uncertainty on the power of the tests. We subsequently propose a full model selection based approach designed to jointly detect the presence of threshold effects and optimally specify its dynamics and compare its performance with the traditional test based approach
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0409013.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 26 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 25
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://18.104.22.168
Model Selection; Threshold Models; SETAR;
Other versions of this item:
- Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
- Pitarakis, J., 2004. "Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0409, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-09-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2004-09-30 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2004-09-30 (Econometric Time Series)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Altissimo, Filippo & Violante, Giovanni L, 2000.
"The Nonlinear Dynamics of Output and Unemployment in the US,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2475, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1999.
" Testing for Linearity,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 551-76, December.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 1998.
"Specification via model selection in vector error correction models,"
Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 321-328, September.
- Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, . "Specification via model selection in vector error correction models," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/754, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1996.
"Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
- Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's threshold estimation and testing results," Statistical Software Components RTZ00091, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "TAR: RATS procedure to estimate a threshold autoregression, tests for threshold effect," Statistical Software Components RTS00209, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 2005. "Challenges For Econometric Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 60-68, February.
- Potter, Simon M, 1995.
"A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
- Pötscher, B.M., 1991. "Effects of Model Selection on Inference," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 163-185, June.
- Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004.
"Dynamic asymmetries in US unemployment,"
ESE Discussion Papers
15, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, .
"Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models,"
Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
info:hdl:10016/766, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2002. "Estimation and model selection based inference in single and multiple threshold models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 319-352, October.
- Minxian Yang, 2002. "Lag length and mean break in stationary VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 374-387, 06.
- Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997.
"Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
381, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Cragg, John G. & Donald, Stephen G., 1997. "Inferring the rank of a matrix," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 223-250.
- Michael McAller & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2007.
"A multiple regime smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries,"
Textos para discussÃ£o
544, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "A multiple regime smooth transition Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for long memory and asymmetries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 104-119, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.