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A sequential procedure for determining the number of regimes in a threshold autoregressive model

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  • Birgit Strikholm
  • Timo Teräsvirta

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a sequential method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models. The proposed method relies on the superconsistency of sequential threshold estimates and uses general linearity tests to determine the number of thresholds. A simulation study is performed in order to find out the finite-sample properties of our procedure and to compare it with two other procedures available in the literature. We find that our method works reasonably well for both single and multiple threshold models. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2006

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  • Birgit Strikholm & Timo Teräsvirta, 2006. "A sequential procedure for determining the number of regimes in a threshold autoregressive model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 472-491, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:9:y:2006:i:3:p:472-491
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    6. Jens-Peter Loy & Thore Holm & Carsten Steinhagen & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Cost pass-through in differentiated product markets: a disaggregated study for milk and butter," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 42(3), pages 441-471.
    7. Ellen Hamaker & Zhiyong Zhang & Han Maas, 2009. "Using Threshold Autoregressive Models to Study Dyadic Interactions," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 727-745, December.
    8. Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2013. "Thresholds and Smooth Transitions in Vector Autoregressive Models," CREATES Research Papers 2013-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    9. Holm, Thore & Loy, Jens-Peter & Steinhagen, Carsten, 2012. "Bio Auch Bei Der Preissetzung: Konsummilch In Deutschland," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 137159, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    10. Habib Ur Rahman & Ghulam Ali & Umer Zaman & Carlo Pugnetti, 2021. "Role of ICT Investment and Diffusion in the Economic Growth: A Threshold Approach for the Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Loy, Jens-Peter & Weiss, Christoph R. & Glauben, Thomas, 2016. "Asymmetric cost pass-through? Empirical evidence on the role of market power, search and menu costs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 184-192.
    12. Cho, Dooyeon, 2018. "On the persistence of the forward premium in the joint presence of nonlinearity, asymmetry, and structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 310-319.
    13. Holm, T. & Loy, J.-P. & Steinhagen, C., 2013. "Bio auch bei der Preissetzung: Konsummilch in Deutschland," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 48, March.
    14. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Safdar Ullah Khan & Habib-Ur Rahman, 2021. "Analysis of Australia’s Fiscal Vulnerability to Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, June.
    15. Loy, Jens-Peter & Holm, Thore & Steinhagen, Carsten, 2012. "Vertical Price Transmission In Differentiated Product Markets: A Disaggregated Study For Milk And Butter," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 123284, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Dreger, Christian & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2020. "The impact of credit for house price overvaluations in the euro area: Evidence from threshold models," MPRA Paper 99523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    18. Bucci, Andrea & Palomba, Giulio & Rossi, Eduardo, 2023. "The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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