Model selection uncertainty and detection of threshold effects
AbstractInferences about the presence or absence of threshold type nonlinearities in TAR models are conducted within models whose lag length has been estimated in a preliminary stage. Typically the null hypothesis of linearity is then tested against a threshold alternative on which the estimated lag length is imposed on each regime. In this paper we evaluate the properties of test statistics for detecting the presence of threshold effects in autoregressive models when this model uncertainty is taken into account. We show that this approach may lead to important distortions when the underlying model has truly threshold effects by establishing the limiting properties of the estimated lag length in the mispecified linear autoregressive fit and assessing the impact of this model uncertainty on the power of the tests. We subsequently propose a full model selection based approach designed to jointly detect the presence of threshold effects and optimally specify its dynamics and compare its performance with the traditional test based approach.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton in its series Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics with number 0409.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2004
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Pitarakis Jean-Yves, 2006. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, March.
- Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2004. "Model Selection Uncertainty and Detection of Threshold Effecs," Econometrics 0409013, EconWPA.
- C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
- C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-10-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2005-10-29 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2005-10-29 (Econometric Time Series)
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