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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l’éducation en France (1815-2003) : Vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif

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  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet

    (LAMETA, Université de Montpellier 1.)

Abstract

L’objectif de cet article est d’étudier l’évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours du XIXe et XXe siècle, le développement du système éducatif s’est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d’identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l’Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d’histoire de la scolarisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet, 2005. "Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l’éducation en France (1815-2003) : Vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif," Working Papers 05-11, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:wpaper:05-11
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modèles à seuil ; éducation ; non linéarité;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education

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