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La seconde explosion scolaire : diffusion des diplômes, structure sociale et valeur des titres

  • Louis Chauvel
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    [eng] The second university boom the diffusion of education the social structure and the value of diplomas. Louis Chauvel. In France, the forty last years were characterised by two successive University booms. A first wave of expansion marked the sixties and benefited to the cohorts born during the forties. Nowadays, the cohorts born twenty years ago are experiencing second boom. Between these two rises, a long stagnation occurred. So, the progress of education seems to be convulsive, and the trend is not linear. A complex system of intra and inter-cohort inequalities results of this progress, and its long term consequences are difficult to foresee. The gap between the bottom and the top of educational hierarchy is unsteady and the link between position on the educational scale and social situation is impossible to anticipate for the consecutive cohorts. For the new cohorts, a potential consequence is an important devaluation of the grades corresponding to the first years of college. Evidently, such phenomenon would have been smoothed with the planing of the long term educational progress since the last decades. [fre] Le niveau éducation connu une élévation considérable depuis 50 ans : l'âge moyen de fin études est passé de 13 ans et demi en 1948 à 18 ans et demi aujourd'hui. En réalité, la croissance scolaire moyenne de la population active dissimule deux explosions scolaires successives : de la première ont bénéficié ceux nés entre 1937 et 1948 environ (scolarisés pour essentiel la fin des années cinquante et dans les années soixante pour ceux qui firent des études supérieures), de la seconde ceux venus au monde après 1968, qui connaissent aujourd'hui une seconde explosion, dont on ne peut savoir pour l'instant jusqu'où elle ira : l'âge médian de fin d'études des nouveaux sortants de 1997 est de 22 ans, alors qu'il n'était que de 19 ans voilà dix ans. Aussi le mouvement de croissance des diplômes est-il convulsif, et non régulier, ce qui implique des perturbations importantes et des difficultés à établir une correspondance entre la hiérarchie des titres scolaires et celle des professions, d'autant que, d'année en année, le haut et le bas de la pyramide des niveaux de scolarité varient de façon inégale. Apparemment, cette seconde explosion scolaire risque d'avoir pour conséquence une dévalorisation importante des titres de premiers cycles universitaires pour les cohortes nées à partir de 1970. Il est difficile encore d'en évaluer l'ampleur : l'explosion se prolonge et les cohortes qui la connaissent aujour hui sont loin êtres toutes entrées dans le monde du travail.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ofce.1998.1507
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    File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_66_1_1507
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 66 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 5-36

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1998_num_66_1_1507
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1998.1507
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ofce

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    1. Louis Dirn, 1997. "Chronique des tendances de la société française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 62(1), pages 203-232.
    2. Louis Dirn & Louis Chauvel & Michel Forse & Henri Mendras & Laurent Mucchielli, 1997. "Chronique des tendances de la société française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 60(1), pages 79-106.
    3. Christian Baudelot & Michel Glaude, 1989. "Les diplômes se dévaluent-ils en se multipliant ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 225(1), pages 3-16.
    4. Louis Dirn, 1997. "Chronique des tendances de la société française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 61(1), pages 201-226.
    5. Michael Spence, 1973. "Job Market Signaling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 355-374.
    6. Albrecht, James W., 1981. "A procedure for testing the signalling hypothesis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 123-132, February.
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