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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l’éducation en France (1815-2003) : Vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif

  • Jean-Pascal Guironnet

L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier l'évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours des XIX[e] et XXe siècles, le développement du système éducatif s'est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d'identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l'Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d'histoire de la scolarisation.

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File URL: http://www.lameta.univ-montp1.fr/Documents/DR2005-05.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Paper provided by LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier in its series Working Papers with number 05-05.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision: Jan 2005
Handle: RePEc:lam:wpaper:05-05
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  6. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Arrow, Kenneth J., 1973. "Higher education as a filter," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 193-216, July.
  9. Gamel, C., 1998. "Le diplome, un "signal" en voie de depreciation? Le modele de SPENCE reexamine," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 98c07, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  10. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  11. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear time series modelling: an introduction," Staff Reports 87, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  12. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  14. Corinne Perraudin & Mélika Ben Salem, 2001. "Tests de linéarité, spécification et estimation de modèles à seuil : une analyse comparée des méthodes de Tsay et de Hansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 157-176.
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