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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l'éducation en France (1815-2003): vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif

L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier l'évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours des XIX[e] et XXe siècles, le développement du système éducatif s'est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d'identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l'Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d'histoire de la scolarisation.

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Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative').

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 34 (February)
Pages: 193-214

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Handle: RePEc:afc:ecosoc:y:2006:i:34:p:193-214
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org

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  1. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March.
  3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  5. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. George Kapetanios, 2003. "Threshold models for trended time series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 687-707, November.
  7. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear time series modelling: an introduction," Staff Reports 87, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  9. Gamel, C., 1998. "Le diplome, un "signal" en voie de depreciation? Le modele de SPENCE reexamine," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 98c07, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
  10. Brockwell, P. J. & Hyndman, R. J., 1992. "On continuous-time threshold autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 157-173, October.
  11. Corinne Perraudin & Mélika Ben Salem, 2001. "Tests de linéarité, spécification et estimation de modèles à seuil : une analyse comparée des méthodes de Tsay et de Hansen," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 157-176.
  12. Gérard Forgeot & Jérôme Gautié, 1997. "Insertion professionnelle des jeunes et processus de déclassement," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 304(1), pages 53-74.
  13. Arrow, Kenneth J., 1973. "Higher education as a filter," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 193-216, July.
  14. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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