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Detecting Business Cycle Asymmetries Using Artificial Neural Networks and Time Series Models

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Khurshid Kiani

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Abstract

This study examines possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in Canada, France, Japan, UK, and USA real GDP growth rates using neural networks nonlinearity tests and tests based on a number of nonlinear time series models. These tests are constructed using in-sample forecasts from artificial neural networks (ANN) as well as time series models. Our study results based on neural network tests show that there is statistically significant evidence of business cycle asymmetries in these industrialized countries. Similarly, our study results based on a number of time series models also show that business cycle asymmetries do prevail in these countries. So we are not able to evaluate the impact of monetary policy or any other shocks on GDP in these countries based on linear models. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10614-005-7366-2
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (August)
Pages: 65-89
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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:26:y:2005:i:1:p:65-89

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Related research
Keywords: B22; C32; C45; E32;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Neftci, Salih N, 1984. "Are Economic Time Series Asymmetric over the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(2), pages 307-28, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ramsey, James B & Rothman, Philip, 1996. "Time Irreversibility and Business Cycle Asymmetry," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 1-21, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Falk, Barry, 1986. "Further Evidence on the Asymmetric Behavior of Economic Time Series over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1096-1109, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Allan D. Brunner, 1990. "Conditional asymmetries in real GNP: a semi-nonparametric approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 140, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  8. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Prasad V. Bidarkota, 1999. "Sectoral Investigation of Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean Dynamics of the Real U.S. GDP," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(4). [Downloadable!]
  14. French, Mark W & Sichel, Daniel E, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns in the Variance of Economic Activity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 113-19, January.
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  17. Allan D. Brunner, 1997. "On The Dynamic Properties Of Asymmetric Models Of Real Gnp," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 321-352, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Khurshid M. Kiani & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2004. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 333-351, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Marimon, Ramon & McGrattan, Ellen & Sargent, Thomas J., 1990. "Money as a medium of exchange in an economy with artificially intelligent agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 329-373, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Vishwakarma, Keshav P, 1994. "Recognizing Business Cycle Turning Points by Means of a Neural Network," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 175-85.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Khurshid M. KIANI & Terry L. KASTENS, 2006. "Using Macro-Financial Variables To Forecast Recessions. An Analysis Of Canada, 1957-2002," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(3). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120. [Downloadable!]
  3. Khurshid Kiani & Terry Kastens, 2008. "Testing Forecast Accuracy of Foreign Exchange Rates: Predictions from Feed Forward and Various Recurrent Neural Network Architectures," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 383-406, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  5. Yoke-Kee Eng & Chin-Yoong Wong, 2008. "A short note on business cycles of underground output: are they asymmetric?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(58), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  6. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2006. "Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 369-381. [Downloadable!]
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