Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations and Contagion Effects in G7 Countries
AbstractThis research studies possible existence of business cycle asymmetries in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US real GDP growth rates. Asymmetries in these countries are modeled using in-sample as well as jackknife out-of-sample forecasts approximated from artificial neural networks. Univariate results show statistically significant evidence of asymmetries in business cycle fluctuations in all the series; this is corroborated with bivariate analysis, which also finds evidence of contagion effects in these countries.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan in its journal International Journal of Business and Economics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
asymmetries; business cycles; neural networks; nonlinearities; vector autoregressions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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