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Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean Dynamics of Real GNP: Robust Evidence

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  • Prasad V. Bidarkota
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    Abstract

    We investigate asymmetries in the conditional mean dynamics of U.S. GNP. Because the statistical evidence on nonlinearities in the conditional mean could be influenced by the presence of outliers or by a failure to model conditional heter oske dasticity, we explicitly account for outliers by assuming that the innovations are drawn from the stable family, and model time-varying volatility by a GARCH(1, 1) process. We also allow for the possibility of long memory in the series with fractional differencing. Our results indicate statistically significant nonlinearities in the conditional mean that persist even after accounting for these features in the data. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/003465300558588
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 82 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 1 (February)
    Pages: 153-157

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    Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:82:y:2000:i:1:p:153-157

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    Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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    Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

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    Cited by:
    1. Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
    2. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2009. "Asymmetries in Macroeconomic Time Series in Eleven Asian Economies," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 8(1), pages 37-54, April.
    3. Yasuhiko Nakamura, 2008. "On Forecasting Recessions via Neural Nets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(13), pages 1-15.
    4. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2007. "Asymmetric Business Cycle Fluctuations and Contagion Effects in G7 Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(3), pages 237-253, December.

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