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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l'éducation en France (1815-2003): vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif


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L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier l'évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours des XIX[e] et XXe siècles, le développement du système éducatif s'est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d'identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l'Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d'histoire de la scolarisation.

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Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative').

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 34 (February)
Pages: 193-214

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Handle: RePEc:afc:ecosoc:y:2006:i:34:p:193-214

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  1. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December.
  2. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics, Boston College Department of Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
  3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
  4. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Threshold Models for Trended Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9905, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Girardin, Michel, 1989. "Business cycles in Switzerland : A comparative study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
  7. Kapetanios, G., 1999. "Model Selection in Threshold Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9906, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Brockwell, P. J. & Hyndman, R. J., 1992. "On continuous-time threshold autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 157-173, October.
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