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Analyse cliométrique des cycles de croissance de l'éducation en France (1815-2003): vers un modèle à seuil autorégressif

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J-P.GUIRONNET

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Abstract

L'objectif de cet article est d'étudier l'évolution, sur longue période, des effectifs scolarisés français. Au cours des XIX[e] et XXe siècles, le développement du système éducatif s'est effectué non pas linéairement mais de manière convulsive. Partant de là, nous choisissons une formalisation économétrique en seuil afin d'identifier les ruptures de grandes ampleurs dans la composante cyclique de la série des effectifs scolarisés. Notre approche cliométrique met ainsi en évidence trois « cycles de croissance » de l'Éducation nationale et apporte une nouvelle interprétation économique de deux siècles d'histoire de la scolarisation.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC) in its journal Economies et Sociétés (Serie 'Histoire Economique Quantitative').

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): 34 (February)
Pages: 193-214
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Handle: RePEc:afc:ecosoc:y:2006:i:34:p:193-214

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Web page: http://www.cliometrie.org
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  1. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(5), pages 505-28, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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