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Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Economic Instability

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  • Martin, Philippe
  • Rogers, Carol Ann

Abstract

When learning-by-doing is at the origin of growth, we show that growth rates should be negatively related to the amplitude of the business cycle if the growth rate in human capital is increasing and concave in the cyclical component of production. Empirical evidence strongly supports this finding for industrialized countries and European regions. Using the standard control variables, we find that countries and regions that have higher standard deviations of growth and of unemployment have lower growth rates. The result does not come from an effect of instability on investment. The negative relation does not hold for non-industrialized countries, however, for which learning-by-doing may not to be the main engine of growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1281.

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Date of creation: Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1281

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Keywords: Economic Fluctuations; Growth; Learning-by-doing; Short-term Instability;

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References

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  1. Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & John B. DONALDSON, 1991. "Methodological and Empirical Issues in Real Business Cycle Theory," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9102, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  2. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
  3. Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip & Ozler, Sule & Alesina, Alberto, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Scholarly Articles 4553024, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Young, Alwyn, 1993. "Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(3), pages 443-72, June.
  5. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "International Comparisons of Educational Attainment," NBER Working Papers 4349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-51, December.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 2012. "Inflation and Economic Growth," CEMA Working Papers 568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  9. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 861-883, May.
  10. Pindyck, Robert, 1989. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 294, The World Bank.
  11. Bahk, Byong-Hong & Gort, Michael, 1993. "Decomposing Learning by Doing in New Plants," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(4), pages 561-83, August.
  12. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1997. "Stabilization Policy, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 152-66, April.
  14. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-78, September.
  15. Bean, C., 1989. "Endogenous Growth And The Procyclical Behaviour Of Productivity," Papers 369, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
  16. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 1996. " Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
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