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Cyclical Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving and Economic Growth

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  • Smith, R Todd

Abstract

This paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty, precautionary saving and economic growth in a stochastic endogenous growth model. The analysis provides insight into the potential connection between technological uncertainty of the sort popularized in real business cycle models and the determinants of economic growth in a stochastic version of a popular model of endogenously determined economic growth. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and growth is quantified and found to be small in terms of its effect on the growth rate, but possibly large in terms of its effect on levels of macroeconomic variables. Moreover, the welfare costs of reduced cyclical uncertainty can be substantial, owing to the lower historical rate of capital accumulation induced by a decrease in precautionary saving. The chief implications of the model are found to be roughly consistent with the postwar experience of several countries, although the predictions of the model with regard to growth rates are too small to explain much of the variation in growth rates across time or across countries. Copyright 1996 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 63 (1996)
Issue (Month): 251 (August)
Pages: 477-94

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:63:y:1996:i:251:p:477-94

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Cited by:
  1. Zied Ftiti, 2010. "Stabilité-croissance et performance économique : quelle relation selon une revue de la littérature ?," Post-Print halshs-00537009, HAL.
  2. Clemens, Christiane, 1999. "Income Taxation, Government Expenditure, and Long-Run Stochastic Growth," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-220, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  3. Côté, Denise & Johnson, Marianne, 1998. "Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending," Working Papers 98-16, Bank of Canada.
  4. Clemens, Christiane & Soretz, Susanne, 2004. "Optimal fiscal policy, uncertainty, and growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 679-697, December.
  5. Zied Ftiti, 2010. "Stabilité-croissance et performance économique : Quelle relation selon une revue de la littérature ?," Working Papers 1026, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  6. Clemens, Christiane & Soretz, Susanne, 1999. "Konsequenzen des Zins- und Einkommensrisikos auf das wirtschaftliche Wachstum," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-221, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  7. Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2008. "Sustained output growth under uncertainty: A simple model with human capital," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1468-1478, December.
  8. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2007. "Sustained Output Growth Under Uncertainty: A Simple Model With Human Capital," Discussion Paper Series 2007_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Aug 2007.
  9. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2007. "Monetary Stabilisation Policy and Long-run Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  10. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 589, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  11. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "On the Effect of Monetary Stabilisation Policy on Long-run Growth (Revised September 2005)," Economics Discussion Papers 587, University of Essex, Department of Economics.

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