Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Growth, Uncertainty and Finance

Contents:

Author Info

  • K Blackburn
  • D Varvarigos
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We study the effects of uncertainty on long-run growth in two model economies, where households fund risky investment projects of entrepreneurs in the presence of financial market imperfections. Imperfections in the first model are due to asymmetric information which is resolved through costly state verification. In this case, some entrepreneurs may decide at the outset not to borrow and not to run projects. Imperfections in the second model are due to incomplete enforceability of loan contracts. In this case, all entrepreneurs are willing to borrow, but some of them may choose not to run projects, preferring to abscond with their loans, instead. We show that, in both cases, an increase in uncertainty increases the rate of interest on loans which increases the number of entrepreneurs who abstain from running projects. This reduces capital accumulation and growth. We also show that financial market frictions have similar effects, and that the effects of uncertainty disappear when these frictions are absent.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/medialibrary/cgbcr/discussionpapers/dpcgbcr48.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester in its series Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series with number 48.

    as in new window
    Length: 25 pages
    Date of creation: 2005
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:48

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
    Phone: (0)161 275 4868
    Fax: (0)161 275 4812
    Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/subjects/economics/our-research/centre-for-growth-and-business-cycle-research/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Gilles Saint-Paul, 1993. "Uncovering Some Causal Relationships between Productivity Growth and the Structure of Economic Fluctuations: A Tentative Survey," NBER Working Papers 4603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1971. "Increasing risk II: Its economic consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 66-84, March.
    4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 207-235, June.
    5. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Andrew F. Newman, 1990. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Discussion Papers 911, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1991. "On the Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Economic Fluctuations and Productivity Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
    8. Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Maria E. Muniagurría, 1993. "Policy variability and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 30, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Townsend, Robert M., 1979. "Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, October.
    10. Blackburn, Keith & Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2003. "Growth, volatility and learning," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 417-421, June.
    11. Diamond, Douglas W, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414, July.
    12. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1993. "The cyclical behavior of short-term business lending: Implications for financial propagation mechanisms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 623-631, April.
    13. Miller, Merton, 1998. "Asian financial crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-358, July.
    14. Levhari, David & Srinivasan, T N, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(106), pages 153-63, April.
    15. Aizenman, Joshua & Powell, Andrew, 2003. "Volatility and financial intermediation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 657-679, October.
    16. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
    17. Galor, Oded & Zeira, Joseph, 1988. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 51644, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 1989.
    18. Salvatore Capasso, 2003. "Financial Markets Development And Economic Growth: Tales Of Informational Asymmetries," Working Papers 2_2003, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    19. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1991. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," NBER Working Papers 3848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gale, Douglas & Hellwig, Martin, 1985. "Incentive-Compatible Debt Contracts: The One-Period Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 647-63, October.
    21. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1998. "Volatility and the welfare costs of financial market integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1974, The World Bank.
    22. K Blackburn & N Bose & S Capasso, 2001. "Financial Development, Financing Choice and Economic Growth," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 07, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    23. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
    24. Blackburn, Keith & Bose, Niloy, 2003. "A model of trickle-down through learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 445-466, January.
    25. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-52, Special I.
    26. K Blackburn & R Galindev, 2003. "Growth, Volatility and Learning," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0303, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    27. K Blackburn & R Galindev, 2003. "Growth, volatility and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 25, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    28. Azariadis, Costas & Chakraborty, Shankha, 1999. "Agency Costs in Dynamic Economic Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(455), pages 222-41, April.
    29. Sandmo, Agnar, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 353-60, July.
    30. de Hek, Paul A, 1999. "On Endogenous Growth under Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 727-44, August.
    31. John Driffill, 2003. "Growth and Finance," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 363-380, 07.
    32. Mirman, Leonard J, 1971. "Uncertainty and Optimal Consumption Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 179-85, January.
    33. Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. António Afonso & Davide Furceri, 2008. "Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/04, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:man:cgbcrp:48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marianne Sensier).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.