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Endogenous Growth and Wave-Like Business Fluctuation

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Author Info

  • Mauro Bambi
  • Omar Licandro

Abstract

version: September 2011 This paper is intended to answer why and how innovation activities promoting economic growth may indeed induce economic fluctuations. To this purpose, it adds an adoption lag to an otherwise standard endogenous growth model with expanding product variety. It shows that the equilibrium path admits a Hopf bifurcation where consumption, R&D and output permanently fluctuate. When adjusting to environmental changes would require some concentration of innovation activities, the associated mass of new businesses will become eventually operative at some point in the future injecting additional resources to the economy. Consumption smoothing will create a new wave of innovations, repeating it again and again as time passes. A simple quantitative exercise shows that such an endogenous mechanism relating the sources of growth and business fluctuations is not only theoretically possible but quantitatively relevant. Finally, the paper quantitatively finds that a procyclical 10% subsidy rate halving consumption fluctuations will increase the growth rate from 2.4% to 3.4% with a 9.6% increase in welfare, from which 6.3% comes from consumption smoothing.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 533.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:533

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Related research

Keywords: Endogenous growth; endogenous fluctuations; innovation; time delays; medium term cycles;

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References

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  1. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David, 2003. "Information technologies, embodiment and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2007-2034.
  2. Raouf Boucekkine & Fernando del Río & Omar Licandro, . "Endogenous vs Exogenously Driven Fluctuations in Vintage Capital Models," Working Papers 98-19, FEDEA.
  3. Fabrice Collard & Omar Licandro & Luis A. Puch, 2003. "The short-run dynamics of optimal growth models with delays," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0311, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  4. Bambi, Mauro & Fabbri, Giorgio & Gozzi, Fausto, 2009. "Optimal policy and consumption smoothing effects in the time-to-build AK model," MPRA Paper 17128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Patrick A. PINTUS, 2010. "Is History a Blessing or a Curse? International Borrowing without Commitment, Leapfrogging and Growth Reversals," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2010038, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2009. "Technology Innovation and Diffusion as Sources of Output and Asset Price Fluctuations," Harvard Business School Working Papers 09-134, Harvard Business School.
  7. Mauro Bambi, 2006. "Endogenous Growth and Time-to-Build: the AK Case," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/17, European University Institute.
  8. Geroski, P A & Walters, C F, 1995. "Innovative Activity over the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 916-28, July.
  9. Raouf Boucekkine & David de la Croix & Omar Licandro, 2006. "Vintage Capital," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/8, European University Institute.
  10. Walde, Klaus & Woitek, Ulrich, 2004. "R&D expenditure in G7 countries and the implications for endogenous fluctuations and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 91-97, January.
  11. Raouf Boucekkine, 2000. "Information, Technology, Embodiment And Growth," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 240, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
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Cited by:
  1. BOUCEKKINE, Raouf & FABBRI, Giorgio & PINTUS, Patrick, . "On the optimal control of a linear neutral differential equation arising in economics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2449, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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