Is History a Blessing or a Curse? International Borrowing without Commitment, Leapfrogging and Growth Reversals
AbstractWe develop a simple open-economy AK model with collateral constraints that accounts for growth-reversal episodes, during which countries face abrupt changes in their growth rate that lead to either growth miracles or growth disasters. Absent commitment to investment by the borrowing country, imperfect contract enforcement leads to an informational lag such that the debt contracted upon today depends upon the past stock of capital. The no-commitment delay originates a history effect by which the richer a country has been in the past, the more it can borrow today. For (arbitrarily) small deviations from perfect contract enforcement, the history effect offsets the growth benefits from international borrowing and dampens growth, and it leads to leapfrogging in long-run levels. When large enough, the history effect originates growth reversals and we connect the latter to leapfrogging. Finally, we argue that the model accords with the reported evidence on growth disasters and growth accelerations. We also provide examples showing that leapfrogging and growth reversals may coexist, so that currently poor but fast-growing countries experiencing sharp growth reversals may end up, in the long-run, significantly richer than currently rich but declining countries.
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Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
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Growth Reversals; Leapfrogging; International Borrowing; Open Economies;
Other versions of this item:
- Raouf BOUCEKKINE & Patrick A. PINTUS, 2010. "Is History a Blessing or a Curse? International Borrowing without Commitment, Leapfrogging and Growth Reversals," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2010038, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
- F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-11-27 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2010-11-27 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FDG-2010-11-27 (Financial Development & Growth)
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