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Growth-and-risk trade-off

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  • Laeven, Luc
  • Perez-Quiros, Gabriel
  • Rivas, María Dolores Gadea

Abstract

We study the effects of credit over the business cycle, distinguishing between expansions and contractions. We find that there is a growth and risk trade-off in the pace of credit growth over the business cycle. While rapid credit growth tends to be followed by deeper recessions, we also find that credit growth has a positive impact on the duration of expansions. This poses a trade-off for the policymaker: Limiting the buildup of financial risk to avoid a deep recession can negatively affect the cumulation of economic growth during the expansion. We show that intermediate levels of credit growth maximize long-term growth while limiting volatility. Macroprudential policies should be used to manage this growth and risk trade-off, striking a balance between allowing expansions to last longer and avoiding deep recessions. JEL Classification: C22, E32, E61

Suggested Citation

  • Laeven, Luc & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Rivas, María Dolores Gadea, 2020. "Growth-and-risk trade-off," Working Paper Series 2397, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20202397
    Note: 261593
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    Cited by:

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    3. Zhang, Bo & Zhao, Meiyu & Tu, Yongqian, 2023. "Sustainable development and resources extraction: A novel perspective for resources rich economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; credit growth; financial crisis; GDP-at-risk; macroprudential policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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