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On asymmetric business cycles and the effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policies

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  • Magud, Nicolas E.
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    Abstract

    An investment model with informational frictions and uncertainty is developed to capture the asymmetric dynamics of business cycles. When hit by a negative shock, the economy responds differently, in both size and recovery length, than when hit by a positive shock. In the model, the role for fiscal policy in smoothing the effects of business cycles fluctuations depends on initial conditions at the time of the shock. Based on the degree of fiscal fragility of the government, expansionary fiscal policy may be expansionary or contractionary in terms of output.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 885-905

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:885-905

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

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    References

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    1. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1998. "Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases," Working Paper Series WP-98-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "What have we learned from social learning?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 617-628, April.
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    5. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," NBER Working Papers 5332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sichel, Daniel E, 1989. "Are Business Cycles Asymmetric? A Correction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(5), pages 1255-60, October.
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    8. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1594, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    10. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
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    12. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
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    16. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John V, 1993. "Sectoral Shocks, Learning, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 777-94, October.
    17. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 3353756, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    18. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
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    Cited by:
    1. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples
      [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]
      ," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Toshihiro Ihori, 2013. "Fiscal Fluctuation Risks and Intergovernmental Functional Allocation," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-32, January.

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