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Asymmetric Cycles

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Author Info
Boyan Jovanovic

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Abstract

I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment costs. Rapid adjustments may cause productivity slowdowns. These slowdowns last longer when retooling is costly. The model explains why growth-rate disasters are more likely than miracles, and why volatility of growth relates negatively to growth over time. I estimate the model, and the estimates have surprising implications. Firms seem to abandon technologies long before they are perfected current-practice TFP is 17 percent below best-practice.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10573.

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Date of creation: Jun 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10573

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E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrea Bassanini & Giorgio Brunello, 2007. "Barriers to Entry, Deregulation and Workplace Training," IZA Discussion Papers 2746, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones & Eswar Prasad, 2004. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2004. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 832, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation (September 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 264, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Boyan Jovanovic, 2007. "Investment Options and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. João Ejarque & Ana Balcão Reis, 2003. "More Lessons from Taking an AK Model to the Data," Discussion Papers 03-37, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. João Ejarque & Ana Balcão Reis, 2003. "The Poverty of Linear Nations: Lessons from Taking an AK Model to the Data," Discussion Papers 03-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michael Stastny & Martin Zagler, 2007. "Empirical Evidence on Growth and Volatility," RSCAS Working Papers 2007/22, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  11. Atsushi Ohyama & Serguey Braguinsky & Kevin M. Murphy, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Ability and Market Selection in an Infant Industry: Evidence from the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 354-381, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-49. [Downloadable!]
  14. Beatriz de-Blas-Pérez, 2004. "Can Financial Frictions Help Explain The Performance Of The Us Fed?," Economics Working Papers we044517, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  15. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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