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Cycles of Credit Expansion and Misallocation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

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  • Feng Dong

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

  • Zhiwei XU

    (Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

Abstract

Burgeoning empirical evidence suggests that credit booms may not only increase misallocation, but also sow seeds for financial crises. However, there is relative under-supply of theory accounting for these facts. To bridge the gap, we develop a unified general equilibrium banking model with heterogeneous firms to analyze the misallocation consequences of credit expansion policy both within and across sectors. The main insight is the trade-off between credit quantity and quality. On the one hand, a moderate credit expansion has a non-monotonic impact on the aggregate output. It raises credit potentially available for production at the cost of more severe productivity distortion. On the other hand, a sufficiently large credit expansion may trigger an inter-bank market crisis, generating discontinuous effect. The resulting economic recession is exacerbated by the firm-level productivity misallocation. By extending the static model to a dynamic environment, we show that an expansionary credit policy can generate endogenous boom-bust business cycles despite the absence of adverse shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Dong & Zhiwei XU, 2018. "Cycles of Credit Expansion and Misallocation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly," 2018 Meeting Papers 444, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:444
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    Cited by:

    1. Spiros Bougheas & Pasquale Commendatore & Laura Gardini & Ingrid Kubin, 2022. "Financial Development, Cycles and Income Inequality in a Model with Good and Bad Projects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10135, CESifo.
    2. Feng Dong, 2023. "Aggregate Implications of Financial Frictions for Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 45-71, April.
    3. Dong, Feng & Jia, Yandong & Wang, Siqing, 2022. "Speculative Bubbles and Talent Misallocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Lu Liu & Yu Tian & Haiquan Chen, 2023. "The Costs of Agglomeration: Misallocation of Credit in Chinese Cities," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-19, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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