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Endogenous Credit Cycles

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  • Chao Gu
  • Randall Wright

Abstract

We study models of credit with limited commitment, which implies endogenous borrowing constraints. We show that there are multiple stationary equilibria, as well as nonstationary equilibria, including some that display deterministic cyclic and chaotic dynamics. There are also stochastic (sunspot) equilibria, in which credit conditions change randomly over time, even though fundamentals are deterministic and stationary. We show this can occur when the terms of trade are determined by Walrasian pricing or by Nash bargaining. The results illustrate how it is possible to generate equilibria with credit cycles (crunches, freezes, crises) in theory, and as recently observed in actual economies.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17510.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Publication status: published as Chao Gu & Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2013. "Endogenous Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 940 - 965.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17510

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  1. David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 2000. "A Debt Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 7879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Marcellus Andrews, 2009. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, by George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller," Challenge, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 52(5), pages 126-131, September.
  3. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas, 2012. "Endogenous credit limits with small default costs," Working Papers 2012-048, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Christian Hellwig & Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "Bubbles and Self-Enforcing Debt," NBER Working Papers 12614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Boragan Aruoba, S. & Rocheteau, Guillaume & Waller, Christopher, 2007. "Bargaining and the value of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2636-2655, November.
  6. Cynthia Harter, 2009. "Review of "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism"," International Review of Economic Education, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 8(1), pages 155-157.
  7. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 2001. "Liquidity Constrained Markets versus Debt Constrained Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 575-98, May.
  8. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2009. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why it Matters for Global Capitalism," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(270), pages 357-358, 09.
  9. Fabrizio Mattesini & Cyril Monnet & Randall Wright, 2009. "Banking: a mechanism design approach," Working Papers 09-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  10. Azariadis, Costas & Kaas, Leo, 2007. "Asset price fluctuations without aggregate shocks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 126-143, September.
  11. Aliprantis, C.D. & Camera, Gabriele & Puzzello, D., 2005. "Anonymous Markets and Monetary Trading," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1179, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
  12. Carol C. Bertaut & Michael Haliassos, 2001. "Debt Revolvers for Self Control," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 0208, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  13. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  14. Ping He & Lixin Huang & Randall Wright, 2005. "Money And Banking In Search Equilibrium," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(2), pages 637-670, 05.
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Cited by:
  1. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG & Lifang Xu, 2012. "Stock Market Bubbles and Unemployment," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2012-011, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  2. Yu Zhu & Randall Wright & Chao He, 2012. "Housing and Liquidity," 2012 Meeting Papers 94, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Costas Azariadis & Leo Kaas, 2012. "Self-fulfilling credit cycles," Working Papers 2012-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  4. Roger E.A. Farmer & Carine Nourry & Alain Venditti, 2012. "The Inefficient Markets Hypothesis: Why Financial Markets Do Not Work Well in the Real World," NBER Working Papers 18647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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