In this paper we document three credit market imperfections prevalent in middle income countries that can help to explain boom-bust cycles, as well as other macroeconomic patterns observed at higher frequencies across these countries. These imperfections are: the existence of financing constraints that affect mainly the nontradables sector, currency mismatch and guarantees that cover lenders against systemic crises. In MICs T-sector firms have access to international capital markets, while most N-firms are bank-dependent and are financially constrained. Systemic guarantees generate incentives for borrowers to take on insolvency risk by denominating debt in foreign currency. This currency mismatch makes movements in the real exchange rate -- the relative price between N and T goods -- the driving element in the amplification of shocks.
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Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number
CESifo Working Paper No. 960.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
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Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002.
"Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation,"
Economics Working Papers
852, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2003.
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