This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Financial Development, Shocks, and Growth Volatility

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Mallick, Debdulal
Abstract

This paper argues that studying the effect of financial development and shocks on aggregate growth volatility will not be informative because they affect growth volatility through its different components. Volatility declines either a consequence of a change in the nature of shocks or a change in how the economy reacts to shocks. If two economies differ only in terms of volatility of shocks experienced, the GDP growth spectrum of one economy will lie proportionately below that of another at all frequency ranges so that both business cycle and long-run variances will be lower. Conversely, if change in volatility is due to propagation mechanism such as financial development, a country having developed financial markets will have disproportionately lower variance at the business cycle than at other frequencies relative to that of a country having less developed financial markets. Therefore, the variance at only the business cycle frequency range will be influenced by financial development. The novelty of this paper is that different components of growth volatility are extracted using spectral method. Empirical evidence provides qualified support for both hypotheses. Higher private credit, which is used as proxy of financial development, dampens business cycle volatility but not the long-run volatility. Shocks, as measured by changes in the terms of trade, affect both business cycle and long-run volatility negatively. These results are robust to alternative market-based measure of financial development, and corrections for reverse causality. These results have important implications for growth theory as they shed lights on the factors causing permanent and transitory deviations from the steady state.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17799/
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 17799.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:17799

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

Related research
Keywords: Financial development; growth volatility; business cycle; spectral analysis;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O16 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
O50 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - General
C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Bacchetta, Philippe & Caminal, Ramon, 2000. "Do capital market imperfections exacerbate output fluctuations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 449-468, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2007. "Capital Market And Business Cycle Volatility," Monash Economics Working Papers 33/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ferreira da Silva, Gisele, 2002. "The impact of financial system development on business cycles volatility: cross-country evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 233-253, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Thorsten Beck & Ross Levine, 2002. "Industry Growth and Capital Allocation: Does Having a Market- or Bank-Based System Matter?," NBER Working Papers 8982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Jörg Döpke, 2004. "How Robust is the Empirical Link between Business-Cycle Volatility and Long-Run Growth in OECD Countries?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 1-23, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism And Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Jose A. Lopez & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  18. Stadler, G. W., 1986. "Real versus monetary business cycle theory and the statistical characteristics of output fluctuations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 51-54. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 2494, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Aizenman, Joshua & Powell, Andrew, 2003. "Volatility and financial intermediation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 657-679, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  21. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market and Business Cycle Volatility," MPRA Paper 4952, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  25. Kunieda, Takuma, 2008. "Financial Development and Volatility of Growth Rates: New Evidence," MPRA Paper 11341, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  26. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc encourages publishers to make their bibliographic data freely available to the public.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.