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Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run

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  • Jose A. Lopez
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

We examine the relationship between indicators of financial development and economic performance for a cross-country panel over long and short periods. Our long-term results are consistent with much of the literature in that we find a positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. However, we fail to find a significant positive relationship after accounting for disparities in factor accumulation. These results therefore indicate that the primary channel for financial development to facilitate growth over the long run is through physical and human capital accumulation. We also identify a significant negative relationship between financial development and income volatility, suggesting that financial development does mitigate economic fluctuations in the long run. ; We then turn to short-run analysis, concentrating on the period immediately surrounding the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Unlike our long-term results, our short-term panel analysis fails to find a significant relationship financial development and economic performance during this period, both for a broad sample of countries and for a small sample of developing Asian nations. ; Taken as a whole, our analysis appears to support a relatively new idea in the literature that while financial development is beneficial over the long run, it may exacerbate short-term volatility in isolated episodes. One reason for this discrepancy may be that financial liberalizations are typically only partial, resulting in increased financial market distortions. We analyze the Korean experience in the period surrounding the Asian financial crisis and argue that this experience supports the idea of distortionary partial liberalization.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Pacific Basin Working Paper Series with number 2002-05.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpb:2002-05

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Keywords: Banking structure ; Financial institutions;

References

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  1. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
  2. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  3. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November.
  4. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Intervention in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 1170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  7. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 43-56.
  8. Woodford, Michael, 2000. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Seminar Papers 666, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Bennett T. McCallum, 1981. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Leitemo, Kai & Roisland, Oistein & Torvik, Ragnar, 2002. " Time Inconsistency and the Exchange Rate Channel of Monetary Policy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 391-97, September.
  12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  13. Froyen, Richard & Guender, Alfred, 2000. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for Small Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 721-40, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Ruiz-Porras, Antonio, 2006. "Financial systems and banking crises: An assessment," MPRA Paper 168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market and Business Cycle Volatility," MPRA Paper 4952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2007. "Capital Market, Severity Of Business Cycle, And Probability Of An Economic Downturn," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 32-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2007. "Capital Market, Frequency Of Recession, And Fraction Of Time The Economy In Recession," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 34-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  5. Huizinga, Harry & Zhu, Dantao, 2006. "Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5697, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market, Severity of Business Cycle, and Probability of Economic Downturn," MPRA Paper 4953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Mallick, Debdulal, 2009. "Financial Development, Shocks, and Growth Volatility," MPRA Paper 17799, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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