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Capital Market, Severity Of Business Cycle, And Probability Of An Economic Downturn

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Author Info
Piyapas Tharavanij
Abstract

This paper investigates the relationships of capital market, severity of economic contraction, and probability of an economic downturn. The finding supports a theoretical prediction that countries with more advanced capital markets would face less severe business cycle output contraction, and a lower chance of an economic downturn. The results hold even after controlling for other relevant variables, country specific effects, and state dependences. However, the marginal effects are small. Results are generated using panel estimation technique with panel data from 44 countries covering the years 1975 through 2004.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2007/3207capitalmarkettharavanij.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 32/07.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 03 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2007-32

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Related research
Keywords: business cycle; capital market; financial development; financial structure; panel data; market-based; bank-based;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models
C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Ross Levine, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which is Better?," NBER Working Papers 9138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market and Business Cycle Volatility," MPRA Paper 4952, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Jose A. Lopez & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 02-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  7. Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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