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Capital Market, Severity Of Business Cycle, And Probability Of An Economic Downturn

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  • Piyapas Tharavanij

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationships of capital market, severity of economic contraction, and probability of an economic downturn. The finding supports a theoretical prediction that countries with more advanced capital markets would face less severe business cycle output contraction, and a lower chance of an economic downturn. The results hold even after controlling for other relevant variables, country specific effects, and state dependences. However, the marginal effects are small. Results are generated using panel estimation technique with panel data from 44 countries covering the years 1975 through 2004.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/eco/research/papers/2007/3207capitalmarkettharavanij.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Economics in its series Monash Economics Working Papers with number 32-07.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mos:moswps:2007-32

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Related research

Keywords: business cycle; capital market; financial development; financial structure; panel data; market-based; bank-based;

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References

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  1. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
  2. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, May.
  3. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  5. Rafael LaPorta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, . "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Working Paper 19443, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  6. Matias Braun & Borja Larrain, 2004. "Finance and the Business Cycle: International, Inter-industry Evidence," Finance 0403001, EconWPA.
  7. Piyapas Tharavanij, 2007. "Capital Market And Business Cycle Volatility," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 33-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  8. Mark Stewart, 2006. "Maximum simulated likelihood estimation of random-effects dynamic probit models with autocorrelated errors," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 6(2), pages 256-272, June.
  9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
  10. Beck, Thorstein & Lundberg, Mattias & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2707, The World Bank.
  11. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  12. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
  13. Thomas Dalsgaard & Jørgen Elmeskov & Cyn-Young Park, 2002. "Ongoing Changes in the Business Cycle: Evidence and Causes," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 315, OECD Publishing.
  14. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  15. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  16. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  17. Jose A. Lopez & Mark M. Spiegel, 2002. "Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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Cited by:
  1. Abu Nurudeen, 2009. "Does Stock Market Development Raise Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 1(1), pages 015-026, December.

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