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International Evidence on Output Fluctuation and Shock Persistence

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Author Info
Daniel Levy (Bar-Ilan & Emory)
Hashem Dezhbakhsh (Emory)

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Abstract

We estimate output growth rate spectra for 58 countries. The spectra exhibit diverse shapes. To study the sources of this diversity, we estimate the short-run, business cycle, and long-run frequency components of the sampled series. For most OECD countries the bulk of the spectral mass is in the business cycle frequency band, and the magnitude of this cyclical component increases with income. For the developing countries, however, the spectral mass is not concentrated in the business cycle frequency band, and the income-cycle relationship is not as strong. We also estimate two frequency domain measures of shock persistence and find both measures to vary considerably across countries, with the U.S. having the lowest estimates. For the OECD countries most of the variation in the variance ratio statistic appears to be explained by the variation in the long-term growth component.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0402016.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0402016

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on Win 98; to print on Any printer; pages: 49 ; figures: Figures are included
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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries; OECD Countries; Output Fluctuation; Output Growth; Shock Persistence; Spectral Analysis; Frequency Domain; Short Run; Long Run; Frequency Component; Income-Cycle Relationship; Variance Ratio Statistic;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Romer, Christina D., 1994. "Remeasuring Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(03), pages 573-609, September. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Granger, C.W.J. & Watson, Mark W., 1984. "Time series and spectral methods in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 979-1022 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Robert G. King & Mark W. Watson, 1995. "Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 95-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Daniel Levy, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-137, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2003. "On the typical spectral shape of an economic variable," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 417-423, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990. "A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. John Hassler & Petter Lundvik & Torsten Persson & Paul Soderlind, 1992. "The Swedish business cycle: stylized facts over 130 years," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 63, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Crowley , Patrick & Maraun , Douglas & Mayes , David, 2006. "How hard is the euro are core? An evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mallick, Debdulal, 2009. "Financial Development, Shocks, and Growth Volatility," MPRA Paper 17799, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mamata Parhi & Tapas Mishra, 2008. "Spatial Growth Volatility and Age-structured Human Capital Dynamics in Europe," Working Papers of BETA 2008-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, ULP, Strasbourg. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2003. "On the typical spectral shape of an economic variable," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 417-423, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Matthew J. Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2006. "Heterogeneous Convergence," Emory Economics 0615, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mishra, Tapas & Jumah, Adusei & Parhi, Mamata, 2008. "Age-structured Human Capital and Spatial Total Factor Productivity Dynamics," Economics Series 226, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 45, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Is the convergence of business cycles a global or regional issue? The UK, US and Euroland," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 177-194. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Imbs, Jean & Mauro, Paolo, 2007. "Pooling Risk Among Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 6461, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Crowley , Patrick & Lee , Jim, 2005. "Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
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