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Financial intermediary development and growth volatility : do intermediaries dampen or magnify shocks?

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Author Info
Beck, Thorstein
Lundberg, Mattias
Majnoni, Giovanni

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Abstract

The authors extend the recent literature on the link between financial development and economic volatility by focusing on the channels through which the development of financial intermediaries affects economic volatility. Their theoretical model predicts that well-developed financial intermediaries dampen the effect of real sector shocks on the volatility of growth while magnifying the effect of monetary shocks-suggesting that, overall, financial intermediaries have no unambiguous effect on growth volatility. The authors test these predictions in a panel data set covering 63 countries over the period 1960-97, using the volatility of terms of trade to proxy for real volatility, and the volatility of inflation to proxy for monetary volatility. They find no robust relationship between the development of financial intermediaries and growth volatility, weak evidence that financial intermediaries dampen the effect of terms of trade volatility, and evidence that financial intermediaries magnify the impact of inflation volatility in low- and middle-income countries.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2707.

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Date of creation: 30 Nov 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2707

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Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies Payment Systems&Infrastructure Economic Theory&Research Fiscal&Monetary Policy Financial Intermediation Economic Theory&Research Environmental Economics&Policies Financial Intermediation Fiscal&Monetary Policy Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bacchetta, Philippe & Caminal, Ramon, 2000. "Do capital market imperfections exacerbate output fluctuations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 449-468, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Levine, Ross, 1999. "A new database on financial development and structure," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jayaratne, Jith & Morgan, Donald P, 2000. "Capital Market Frictions and Deposit Constraints at Banks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 74-92, February.
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  11. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1999. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 7151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Goodfriend, Marvin, 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 197-202, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 2000. "Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 31-77, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Anil Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 4317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Ross Levine & Sara Zervos, . "Stock markets, banks and economic growth ," CERF Discussion Paper Series 95-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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  22. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 151-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Morgan, Donald P, 1998. "The Credit Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence Using Loan Commitments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 102-18, February.
  24. Boyd, John H. & Levine, Ross & Smith, Bruce D., 2001. "The impact of inflation on financial sector performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 221-248, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Beck, Thorsten, 2006. "Creating an efficient financial system : challenges in a global economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3856, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hamdi KHALFAOUI, 2005. "Question de causalité entre développement réel et développement financier : Une notion encore embarrassée," Development and Comp Systems 0512020, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Honohan, Patrick, 2002. "Banking policy and macroeconomic stability - an exploration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2856, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market and Business Cycle Volatility," MPRA Paper 4952, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Huizinga, Harry & Zhu, Dantao, 2006. "Financial Structure and Macroeconomic Volatility: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 5697, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hamdi KHALFAOUI, 2005. "Libéralisation financière : Impacts et conditions de réussite Un essai d'application pour les pays du Maghreb," International Finance 0512006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Franz R. Hahn, 2003. "Financial Development and Macroeconomic Volatility. Evidence from OECD Countries," WIFO Working Papers 198, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  8. Malebogo Bakwena & Philip Bodman & Sandy Suardi, . "Making Abundant Natural Resources Work for Developing Economies: The Role of Financial Institutions," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2108, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. K C Neanidis & D Varvarigos, 2005. "The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth: Volatility of Disbursements and Distribution of Receipts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 56, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  10. Tharavanij, Piyapas, 2007. "Capital Market, Severity of Business Cycle, and Probability of an Economic Downturn," MPRA Paper 4953, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
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