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Financial Crises and Economic Activity

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Author Info
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Marion Kohler
Christian Upper

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Abstract

We study the output costs of 40 systemic banking crises since 1980. Most, but not all, crises in our sample coincide with a sharp contraction in output from which it took several years to recover. Our main findings are as follows. First, the current financial crisis is unlike any others in terms of a wide range of economic factors. Second, the output losses of past banking crises were higher when they were accompanied by a currency crisis or when growth was low at the onset of the crisis. When accompanied by a sovereign debt default, a systemic banking crisis was less costly. And, third, there is a tendency for systemic banking crises to have lasting negative output effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15379.

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Date of creation: Sep 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15379

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Charles Goodhart & Dirk Schoenmaker, 2009. "Fiscal Burden Sharing in Cross-Border Banking Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(1), pages 141-165, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. repec:pal:imfstp:v:56:y:2009:i:1:p:8-62 is not listed on IDEAS
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  4. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning," Working Paper Series 2009-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Rodrik, Dani, 2009. "Growth After the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Luisa Carpinelli, 2009. "Real effects of banking crises: a survey of the literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 55, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-25.


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