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A model of commodity prices after Sir Arthur Lewis

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  • Deaton, Angus
  • Laroque, Guy

Abstract

We develop an idea from Arthur Lewis’ paper on unlimited supplies of labor to model the longrun behavior of the prices of primary commodity produced by poor countries. Commodity supply is assumed infinitely elastic in the long run, and the rate of growth of supply responds to the excess of the current price over the long run supply price. Demand is linked to the level of world income and to the price of the commodity, so that price is stationary around its supply price, and commodity supply and world income are cointegrated. The model is fitted to long-run historical data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 71 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 289-310

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:71:y:2003:i:2:p:289-310

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References

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  1. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1996. "Competitive Storage and Commodity Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 896-923, October.
  2. Halvorsen, Robert & Smith, Tim R, 1991. "A Test of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 123-40, February.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00630711 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Rabah Arezki & Daniel Lederman & Hongyan Zhao, 2011. "The Relative Volatility of Commodity Prices: A Reappraisal," CESifo Working Paper Series 3694, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Jean-François Brun, 2008. "Pouvoir de marché dans la filière cacao : l’hypothèse de Prebisch – Singer revisitée," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 186(5), pages 133-144.
  4. Matthias Basedau, 2005. "Context Matters – Rethinking the Resource Curse in Sub-Saharan Africa," GIGA Working Paper Series 01, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  5. Mirzabaev, Alisher & Tsegai, Daniel W., 2012. "Effects of weather shocks on agricultural commodity prices in Central Asia," Discussion Papers 140769, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  6. Boschi, Melisso & Pieroni, Luca, 2009. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-207.
  7. Arango, Santiago & Larsen, Erik, 2011. "Cycles in deregulated electricity markets: Empirical evidence from two decades," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2457-2466, May.
  8. Jann Lay & Toman Omar Mahmoud, 2004. "Bananas, Oil, and Development: Examining the Resource Curse and Its Transmission Channels by Resource Type," Kiel Working Papers 1218, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
  10. Norbert Funke & Weifeng Wu & Yanliang Miao, 2011. "Reviving the Competitive Storage Model," IMF Working Papers 11/64, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Ghoshray, A. & Perera, A., 2011. "The Model of Commodity Prices after Sir Arthur Lewis Revisited," Department of Economics Working Papers 32991, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
  12. Matthias Basedau, 2005. "Context Matters – Rethinking the Resource Curse in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic History 0508002, EconWPA.
  13. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00630711 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Lopez, Ramon E. & Stocking, Andrew, 2009. "Bringing Growth Theory "Down to Earth"," Working Papers 48944, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  15. Fu, Xiaolan & Kaplinsky, Raphael & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "The Impact of China on Low and Middle Income Countries’ Export Prices in Industrial-Country Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1483-1496.
  16. Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  17. Arango, Santiago & Moxnes, Erling, 2012. "Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 321-334.
  18. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.

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