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The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises

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  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Karmann, Alexander
  • Maltritz, Dominik

Abstract

We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners' currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 11 (November)
Pages: 1983-1995

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:1983-1995

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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Keywords: Currency crises American Depositary Receipts Forecasting Depreciation expectations;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chen, Mei-ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsu, Yi-Chung, 2011. "The impact of American depositary receipts on the Japanese index: Do industry effect and size effect matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 526-539.
  2. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Meisami, Alex & Shi, Yilun, 2010. "Lost in translation: Delayed ex-dividend price adjustments of Hong Kong ADRs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 647-655, March.
  3. Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat & Yang, Ting, 2010. "Speed of convergence to market efficiency for NYSE-listed foreign stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 594-605, March.

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