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Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe Centrale

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  • Michel Aglietta
  • Camille Baulant
  • Virginie Coudert

Abstract

[fre] Les pays d'Europe centrale connaissent une ouverture rapide au commerce international et le plus souvent une appréciation de leur taux de change réel. En construisant un modèle dont les équations sont estimées pour trois pays, la Hongrie, la Pologne et la République tchèque, on montre que la conjonction de ces deux facteurs structurels met en péril la modernisation dans le respect de l'équilibre extérieur. L'inflation est sous contrôle mais doit rester à un niveau assez élevé pour que les entreprises financent l'investissement productif sans recours excessif aux entrées de capitaux. Ces contraintes conduisent à des politiques de taux de change réel guidées par la profitabilité des entreprises. [eng] Central Europe countries have experimented a rapid opening of their international trade, and their real exchange rate has had a tendency to appreciate on the long run. We built a model in order to link the GDP growth and the trade balance to the opening ratio and the real exchange rate. We show that the simultaneous rise in the opening ratio and the appreciation of the exchange rate jeopardise the trade balance, taking into account the necessary high demand growth. Inflation is declining but should remain at a sufficient level for the firms to finance their investment without excessively borrowing from abroad. The choice of exchange rate regimes should therefore take into account these constraints.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1998-10.

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Date of creation: Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1998-10

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References

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  1. Grafe, Clemens & Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate in Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 1773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Begg, David, 1997. "Monetary Policy during Transition: Progress and Pitfalls in Central and Eastern Europe, 1990-6," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 33-46, Summer.
  3. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
  5. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1996. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 96/137, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Halpern, László, 1996. "Real Exchange Rates and Exchange Rate Policy in Hungary," CEPR Discussion Papers 1366, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
  8. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1996. "Capital inflows and the real exchange rate: analytical framework and econometric evidence," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 101-146.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Sandra Moatti, 2003. "Les PECO devant la tentation de l'euro," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 93, pages 11-36.
  2. Kierzenkowski, Rafal, 2002. "The Multi-Regime Bank Lending Channel and the Effectiveness of the Polish Monetary Policy Transmission During Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 3624, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kalina Dimitrova, 2002. "Dual Inflation Under the Currency Board: The Challenges of Bulgarian EU Accession," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 487, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Kierzenkowski, Rafal, 2005. "The multi-regime bank lending channel and the effectiveness of the Polish monetary policy transmission during transition," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 1-24, March.
  5. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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