Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe Centrale
Abstract[fre] Les pays d'Europe centrale connaissent une ouverture rapide au commerce international et le plus souvent une apprÃ©ciation de leur taux de change rÃ©el. En construisant un modÃ¨le dont les Ã©quations sont estimÃ©es pour trois pays, la Hongrie, la Pologne et la RÃ©publique tchÃ¨que, on montre que la conjonction de ces deux facteurs structurels met en pÃ©ril la modernisation dans le respect de l'Ã©quilibre extÃ©rieur. L'inflation est sous contrÃ´le mais doit rester Ã un niveau assez Ã©levÃ© pour que les entreprises financent l'investissement productif sans recours excessif aux entrÃ©es de capitaux. Ces contraintes conduisent Ã des politiques de taux de change rÃ©el guidÃ©es par la profitabilitÃ© des entreprises. [eng] Central Europe countries have experimented a rapid opening of their international trade, and their real exchange rate has had a tendency to appreciate on the long run. We built a model in order to link the GDP growth and the trade balance to the opening ratio and the real exchange rate. We show that the simultaneous rise in the opening ratio and the appreciation of the exchange rate jeopardise the trade balance, taking into account the necessary high demand growth. Inflation is declining but should remain at a sufficient level for the firms to finance their investment without excessively borrowing from abroad. The choice of exchange rate regimes should therefore take into account these constraints.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1998-10.
Date of creation: Oct 1998
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert & Michel Aglietta, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1221-1236.
- Camille Baulant & Michel Aglietta & Virginie Coudert, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1221-1236.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
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