Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale
Abstract[fre] Les pays d'Europe centrale connaissent une ouverture rapide au commerce international et le plus souvent une appréciation de leur taux de change réel. En construisant un modèle dont les équations sont estimées pour trois pays, la Hongrie, la Pologne et la République tchèque, on montre que la conjonction de ces deux facteurs structurels met en péril la modernisation dans le respect de l'équilibre extérieur. L'inflation est sous contrôle mais doit rester à un niveau assez élevé pour que les entreprises financent l'investissement productif sans recours excessif aux entrées de capitaux. Ces contraintes conduisent à des politiques de taux de change réel guidées par la profitabilité des entreprises. [eng] Central Europe countries have experimented a rapid opening of their international trade, and their real exchange rate has had a tendency to appreciate on the long run. We built a model in order to link the GDP growth and the trade balance to the opening ratio and the real exchange rate. We show that the simultaneous rise in the opening ratio and the appreciation of the exchange rate jeopardise the trade balance, taking into account the necessary high demand growth. Inflation is declining but should remain at a sufficient level for the firms to finance their investment without excessively borrowing from abroad. The choice of exchange rate regimes should therefore take into account these constraints.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): 50 (1999)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/reco
Other versions of this item:
- Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert & Michel Aglietta, 1999. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe centrale," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(6), pages 1221-1236.
- Michel Aglietta & Camille Baulant & Virginie Coudert, 1998. "Compétitivité et régime de change en Europe Centrale," Working Papers 1998-10, CEPII research center.
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- O57 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
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