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A Real Exchange Rate Based Phillips Curve

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  • Konstantin Styrin

    ()
    (New Economic School)

  • Oleg Zamulin

    ()
    (National Research University – Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

It has been noted in many papers that primary commodity exporting economies and developing countries frequently respond to movements in the real exchange rate as part of their monetary policies. For many central banks, this variable is the primary indicator of real activity. At the same time, smoothing the real exchange rate fluctuations has certain inflationary costs. In a way, this trade-off between inflation and the real exchange rate is identical to a standard Phillips curve. This paper derives an exact theoretical expression for this “real exchange rate based Phillips curve,” and finds empirical support for its existence in the data for a number of primary commodity exporting economies such as Australia, Canada, New Zealand and others. It turns out that the correct right-hand-side variable in the Phillips curve is not the real exchange rate itself, but rather its deviation from the fundamental value, which is a function of the international price of exported commodities. The empirical counterpart of the fundamental real exchange rate is obtained from a cointegrating equation for the real exchange rate and the countryspecific price index of exported commodities. As is frequently found in other Phillips curve studies, empirical tests point towards the accelerationist specification, which can be rationalized by dominance of adaptive expectations in price-setting behavior.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0179.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0179

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Keywords: Real exchange rate; inflation; Phillips curve; commodity currencies;

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  1. Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2005. "Identification Issues in Forward-Looking Models Estimated by GMM, with an Application to the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 421-48, June.
  2. Kirill Sosunov & Oleg Zamulin, 2006. "Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?," Working Papers w0083, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  3. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "Identifying the new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 525-551.
  4. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," Working Papers 10-07, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  5. Kleibergen, Frank & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2009. "Weak Instrument Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 293-311.
  6. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Targeting the real exchange rate: Theory and evidence," MPRA Paper 13412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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