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An empirical comparison between a regression framework and the Synthetic Control Method

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  • Gharehgozli, Orkideh

Abstract

The Synthetic Control Method has been used in comparative case studies in which the existence of a counterfactual unit with a high level of similarities and comparability is crucial. On the other hand, while many methods have been developed to enhance our estimation power, not many studies have explored the prediction power of the traditional regression frameworks in such comparative case studies. In this paper, we empirically compare the Synthetic Control Method with a Dynamic Panel Data Regression Framework. We compare the estimation result and the prediction power of the predicted unit driven from the Dynamic Panel Data model and the counterfactual unit from the SCM. To apply the idea, we employ the recent sanctions on Iran as a suitable case of policy intervention and a comparative case study.

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  • Gharehgozli, Orkideh, 2021. "An empirical comparison between a regression framework and the Synthetic Control Method," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 70-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:81:y:2021:i:c:p:70-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.05.002
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Synthetic Control Method; Dynamic Panel Data; Treatment effect; Counterfactual; Comparative case study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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