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How Robust are Estimated Equilibrium Exchange Rates? A Panel BEER Approach

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  • Agnès Bénassy-Quéré
  • Sophie Béreau
  • Valérie Mignon

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the robustness of equilibrium exchange rate estimations based on the BEER approach for a set of both industrial and emerging countries. The robustness is studied in four directions, successively. First, we investigate the impact of using alternative proxies for relative productivity. Second, we analyze the impact of estimating the equilibrium equation on one single panel covering G20 countries, or separately for G7 and non-G7 countries. Third, we measure the influence of the choice of the numeraire on the derivation of bilateral equilibrium rates. Finally, we study the temporal robustness of the estimations by dropping one or two years from the estimation period. Our main conclusion is that BEER estimations are quite robust to these successive tests, although at one point of time misalignments can differ by several percentage points depending on the methodology. The choice of the productivity proxy is the most sensible one, followed by the country sample. In contrast, the choice of the numeraire and the time sample have a relatively limited impact on estimated misalignments.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-01.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-01

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Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rate; BEER; Productivity; Panel cointegration;

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References

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  1. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  2. Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Lahrèche-Révil, Amina & Mignon, Valérie, 2011. "World-consistent equilibrium exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 12-32, June.
  3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Pascale Duran-Vigneron & Amina Lahrèche-Revil & Mignon, Valerie, 2004. "Burden Sharing and Exchange-Rate Misalignments within the Group of Twenty," Working Papers 2004-13, CEPII research center.
  4. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina lahrèche-Révil & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Is Asia Responsible For Exchange Rate Misalignments Within The G20?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 46-61, 02.
  6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Béreau & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates: a Guidebook for the Euro-Dollar Rate," Working Papers 2008-02, CEPII research center.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
  2. Matteo Salto & Alessandro Turrini, 2010. "427 - Comparing alternative methodologies for real exchange rate assessment - Matteo Salto and Aless," European Economy - Economic Papers 427, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  3. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2011. "Should the UK Join the Euro Zone? Evidence from a Synthetic OCA Assessment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 77-96, June.
  4. Marcos Rocha & Fernando Barbi, 2011. "Determinantes doDesalinhamento Cambial: Uma análise comcointegração em painel," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 112, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  5. Bineau, Yannick, 2010. "Renminbi's misalignment: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 259-269, September.
  6. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2009. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 121-136, 02.

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