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The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?

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  • Kirsten Lommatzsch
  • Silke Tober

Abstract

This paper argues that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not of importance for the inflation target of the ECB. First, econometric tests of the Balassa-Samuelson effect suggest that its econometric significance is weak at best. Second, countries in the process of catching up require a real devaluation in the sector of tradable goods to maintain balance-of-payments equilibrium which counters the real appreciation resulting from a relative increase in service prices. It follows that whereas the Balassa-Samuelson effect could, at least in theory, be used to justify an inflation target well above zero, thedifference in productivity growth and thus the difference in the size of the Balassa-Samuelson effect between countries as such cannot.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
    • Handle: RePEc:erp:euirsc:p0136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," Post-Print hal-03459160, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2822 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    4. Ulrich Fritsche & Camille Logeay & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Rudolf Zwiener unter Mitarb. von Cansel Kiziltepe & Christian Proano-Acosta, 2005. "Auswirkungen von länderspezifischen Differenzen in der Lohn-, Preisniveau- und Produktivitätsentwicklung auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung in den Ländern des Euroraums: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im ," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 8, number pbk8, Enero-Abr.
    5. Balazs Egert & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "The Stock-Flow Approach to the Real Exchange Rate of CEE Transition Economies," Working Papers 2004-15, CEPII research center.
    6. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 257-324, April.
    7. Balázs Égert, 2005. "Balassa-Samuelson Meets South Eastern Europe, the CIS and Turkey: A Close Encounter of the Third Kind?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 2(2), pages 221-243, December.
    8. Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2822, Sciences Po.
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2005_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Egert, Balazs, 2005. "Equilibrium exchange rates in South Eastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) diseased?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 205-241, June.
    11. repec:onb:oenbfi:y:2004:i:2:b:6 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Christian Proaño Acosta, 2007. "Inflation Differentials and Business Cycle Fluctuations in the European Monetary Union," IMK Working Paper 05-2007, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Sabine Le Bayon, 2006. "La croissance espagnole est-elle soutenable ?," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459160, HAL.
    14. Balázs Égert, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Southeastern Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Turkey: Healthy or (Dutch) Diseased?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 138-181.
    15. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:400-426 is not listed on IDEAS

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    European Central Bank; EMU; international trade;
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