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Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation

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Author Info
Canzoneri, Matthew, et al

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Abstract

The paper examines a long-run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross-country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa-Samuelson "productivity hypothesis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 497-516
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:497-516

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  1. Jochen Michaelis & Heike Minich, 2004. "Inflationsdifferenzen im Euroraum - Eine Bestandsaufnahme," Discussion Papers in Economics 62/04, University of Kassel, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John H. Rogers, 2002. "Monetary union, price level convergence, and inflation: how close is Europe to the United States?," International Finance Discussion Papers 740, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Kirsten Lommatzsch & Silke Tober, 2004. "The Inflation Target of the ECB: Does the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Matter?," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 19, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS). [Downloadable!]
  4. Balazs Egert & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2004. "Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 47-72, May. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marcelo Sánchez, 2008. "Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies," Working Paper Series 927, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Heather Gibson & Jim Malley, 2008. "The Contribution of Sectoral Productivity Differentials to Inflation in Greece," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 629-650, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Carmen Mar? Mart?ez, 2003. "The Structural Approach of a Natrex Model on Equilibrium Exchange Rates," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 588.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
  8. Van Poeck A., 2009. "One Money and Fifteen Needs Inflation and Output Convergence in the European Monetary Union," Working Papers 2009001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Romain Restout, 2008. "Monopolistic Competition and the Dependent Economy Model," EconomiX Working Papers 2008-9, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
  10. Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Juan Angel Garcia, 2003. "Relevant economic issues concerning the optimal rate of inflation," Working Paper Series 278, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. M. Katsimi, 2004. "Inflation divergence in the euro area: the Balassa-Samuelson effect," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 329-332, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Romain Restout, 2008. "Monopolistic Competition and the Dependent Economy Model," Working Papers 0803, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure. [Downloadable!]
  13. Andrén, Niclas & Oxelheim, Lars, 2006. "Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency," Working Paper Series 668, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. John H. Rogers, 2001. "Price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 699, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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