The Predictability of Real Exchange Rate Changes in the Short and Long Run
AbstractNominal exchange rates do not move to offset differences in inflation rates on a month to month, quarter to quarter, or even year to year basis, resulting in sizable real exchange rate changes. Are these changes predictable? We address this question in three ways. First, we describe a variety of tests of predictability and explain how the different tests are related. Next, we implement the tests for the U.S. dollar relative to four currencies and find statistically significant evidence that real exchange rate changes are predictable. Finally, we examine whether the predictability is of an economically interesting magnitude.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3468.
Date of creation: Oct 1990
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Publication status: published as Japan and the World Economy, Volume 3, pp. 17-38, 1991
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Other versions of this item:
- Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1991. "The predictability of real exchange rate changes in the short and long run," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, April.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ross Levine, 1988. "The forward exchange rate bias: a new explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 338, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1982.
"International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Robert E. Cumby & John Huizinga, 1983.
"Two-Step Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation in Models with Rational Expectations,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
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