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Do Fundamentals Explain the Behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate?

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Author Info
Nilsson, Kristian () (National Institute of Economic Research)
Abstract

In this study, we make use of time series analysis to calculate a real effective equilibrium exchange rate for Sweden. The results indicate that the krona was severely overvalued in late 1992, when the fixed exchange rate regime finally was abandoned. Furthermore, the results indicate that the real effective equilibrium exchange rate has depreciated substantially since the mid-1990s, primarily due to deteriorating terms of trade. The results indicate that the krona was undervalued by some 4 to 5 percent at the end of 2000, given the prevailing economic conditions. We also provide some arithmetical examples of SEK/EUR conversion rates, under various assumptions, to provide some guideline if Sweden is to adopt the common currency in the near future.

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Paper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 78.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0078

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Related research
Keywords: BEER; conversion rate; equilibrium exchange rate; real exchange rates;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of It," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Tamim Bayoumi & Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals - A Methodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate - A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the BEER - A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2003. "The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate: An Unobserved Components System Approach," Working Paper Series 152, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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