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Do Fundamentals Explain the Behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate?

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  • Nilsson, Kristian

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    (National Institute of Economic Research)

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    Abstract

    In this study, we make use of time series analysis to calculate a real effective equilibrium exchange rate for Sweden. The results indicate that the krona was severely overvalued in late 1992, when the fixed exchange rate regime finally was abandoned. Furthermore, the results indicate that the real effective equilibrium exchange rate has depreciated substantially since the mid-1990s, primarily due to deteriorating terms of trade. The results indicate that the krona was undervalued by some 4 to 5 percent at the end of 2000, given the prevailing economic conditions. We also provide some arithmetical examples of SEK/EUR conversion rates, under various assumptions, to provide some guideline if Sweden is to adopt the common currency in the near future.

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    File URL: http://www.konj.se/download/18.70c52033121865b1398800093018/WP_78.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Institute of Economic Research in its series Working Paper with number 78.

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    Length: 35 pages
    Date of creation: 01 Mar 2002
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0078

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    Related research

    Keywords: BEER; conversion rate; equilibrium exchange rate; real exchange rates;

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    References

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    1. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    4. Peter B. Clark & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "Filtering the Beer," IMF Working Papers 00/144, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jonathan D. Ostry, 1988. "The Balance of Trade, Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rate: An Intertemporal Optimizing Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(4), pages 541-573, December.
    6. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    7. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    8. Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it," IMF Working Papers 97/21, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Susana Garcia Cervero & J. Humberto Lopez & Enrique Alberola Ila & Angel J. Ubide, 1999. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 99/175, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Hamid Faruqee, 1994. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Working Papers 94/90, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
    12. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    13. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD Publishing.
    14. Peter B. Clark & Steven A. Symansky & Tamim Bayoumi & Mark P. Taylor, 1994. "Robustness of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations to Alternative Assumptions and Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 94/17, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2003. "The Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment and the Real Exchange Rate: An Unobserved Components System Approach," Working Paper Series 152, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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