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Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation

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  • Javier Gómez

    ()

  • Juan Manuel Julio

Abstract

Colombia has been on a steady disinflation path since the early 1990s. The paper presents a model of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Colombia, in order to examine this disinflation. The model is used to describe the evolution of inflation in response to shocks to the terms of trade, the risk premium, across different monetary policy rules; and in particular, under different assumptions about the formation of inflation expectations. We then ilustrate the behaviour of the economy under a permanent shift to the inflation target and quantify the sacrifice ratio under different kinds of formation of inflation expectations. This helps us to judge to what extent the shift towards a more forward-looking wage and price setting affects the disinflation process and its cost. Finaly, we estimate the welfare gains from disinflation and provide a inflation forecast for Colombia.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 168.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:168

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Cited by:
  1. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2008. "Metas de inflación en una economía dolarizada: La experiencia del Perú," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 10(1), pages 7-44, December.
  2. José Gómez González & Fernando Grosz, 2006. "Evidence of Bank Lending Channel for Argentina and Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002649, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Targeting Inflation in a Dollarized Economy: The Peruvian Experience," Research Department Publications 4423, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006. "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition Toa Stable Lvel Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003613, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, . "El Canal de Oferta Agregada en un Modelo de Mecanismos de Transmisión de la Política Monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 241, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Adrián Armas & Francisco Grippa, 2005. "Fijación de metas inflacionarias en una economía dolarizada: la experiencia de Perú," Research Department Publications 4424, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  7. Javier Gómez, . "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 198, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Javier Gómez, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Sudden Stops," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002854, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2003. "El Canal De Oferta Agregada En Un Modelo De Mecanismos De Transmisión De La Política Monetaria En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002461, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Sergio Clavijo, 2004. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Colombia: Progress and Challenges," IMF Working Papers 04/166, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, . "The Implementation of Inflation Targeting in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2002. "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and The Cost of Disinflation," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003770, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  13. Javier Gómez, . "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version," Borradores de Economia 198nv, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  14. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "Inflation Targeting, Sudden Stops and the Cost of Fear of Floating," Borradores de Economia 276, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  15. Rodrigo Avella, . "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  16. Javier Gómez, . "Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version," Borradores de Economia 198a, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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