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Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia

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  • Rodrigo Avella
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    Abstract

    En este paper se analiza la relación entre las sequías y la inflación en Colombia como choques de oferta de corto plazo, por medio de la descomposición de la inflación total en inflación de alimentos y no alimentos, dentro de un modelo macroeconómico de pequeña escala con régimen de inflación objetivo. La inflación de alimentos no responde a choques de demanda en el corto plazo, pero en el largo plazo se ajusta a la inflación de los no alimentos, la cual si responde a los choques de demanda. Se prueba el efecto de las sequías bajo distintas reglas de política monetaria para ver en qué casos se puede disminuir la variabilidad de la inflación total ante choques de oferta. La variabilidad de la unflación total depende muy poco de la regla de política que se aplique. DE la misma manera, es mínimo el efecto de alternar la inflación objetivo entre total y sin alimentos; sin embargo, la variabilidad sobre la tasa de interés nominal, real y la brecha del producto aumenta cuando se fijan las metas sobre la inflación total. Los pronósticos de inflación pueden mejorar notablemente si se incluyen los choques de oferta generados por las sequías, dentro de los detrminantes de la variación de los precios.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 183.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:183

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    1. Enrique López E & Martha Misas A, 1998. "Un Examen Empírico De La Curva De Phillips En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
    2. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Allan D. Brunner, 1998. "El Nino and world primary commodity prices: warm water or hot air?," International Finance Discussion Papers 608, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    7. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1999. "Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semiclassical Structural Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 15-56 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, . "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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