IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/606.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dezinflációs számítások dezaggregált kibocsátási résekre alapozó makromodellel
[Disinflation simulations with a disaggregated output gap-based model]

Author

Listed:
  • Várpalotai, Viktor

Abstract

A tanulmányban restriktív modellfeltevésekkel hasonlítjuk össze a különféle dezinflációs stratégiák, forgatókönyvek költségeit. A számításokhoz kiindulási alapként Benczúr-Simon-Várpalotai [2002] „kisméretű makromodellje” szolgál, amelynek aggregált kibocsátási rés elnevezésű változóját a GDP felhasználási tételeinek megfelelően bontottuk fel háztartások és kormányzat fogyasztására, beruházásra, exportra és importra. Az így előállt rések viselkedését leíró egyenleteket az 1991- 2002-es adatok felhasználásával becsültük meg. Az új, strukturáltabb modell segítségével kiszámítottuk különféle stratégiák költségeit és a hozzájuk szükséges dezinflációs periódusokat. Számításokat végeztünk a nominális felértékelődés és a fiskális lazítás hatásának a megállapítására, valamint egy olyan dezinfláció költségeinek a mérésére, ahol az erős árfolyam fiskális megszorításhoz kapcsolódik. Bár a kapott költségszámok - áldozati ráták - abszolút értékeit fenntartással kell kezelnünk, az egyes változatok összehasonlítása azonban egyértelmű üzenethez vezet: nemcsak gyorsabb, de olcsóbb is az olyan dezinfláció, amelyben a kereslet visszafogása párhuzamosan történik minden szektorban, vagyis a gazdaságpolitika monetáris és fiskális ága összehangoltan működik. Ha ez az összhang hiányzik, akkor a dezinfláció lassul és költségei növekednek. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C53, E31, E32, E37.

Suggested Citation

  • Várpalotai, Viktor, 2003. "Dezinflációs számítások dezaggregált kibocsátási résekre alapozó makromodellel [Disinflation simulations with a disaggregated output gap-based model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 287-314.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:606
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=606
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    3. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 2019. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 3, pages 57-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    8. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viktor VÁRPALOTAI, 2010. "Disinflation Simulation with Disaggregated Output Gap Model for Hungary," EcoMod2004 330600151, EcoMod.
    2. Javier Gómez & José Darío Uribe & Hernando Vargas, 2002. "The Implementation Of Inflation Targeting In Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3603, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502, Decembrie.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2010. "Phillips Curves And Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique And A Holistic Perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 1-51, February.
    6. Rodrigo Avella, 2001. "Efecto de las Sequías Sobre la Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 183, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Dai, Meixing, 2006. "Independent inflation-targeting regime versus monetary union: An analysis of dynamic stability under endogenous inflation expectations," MPRA Paper 15142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. José Romero, 2013. "¿Es posible utilizar el tipo de cambio para hacer más competitiva la economía mexicana?," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2013-10, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    9. Martha López P., 2004. "Efficient policy rule for inflation targeting in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(45), pages 80-115, June.
    10. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, 2003. "Transmission Mechanism and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia's Desinflation," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 109-133, December.
    11. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
    12. Takhtamanova, Yelena F., 2010. "Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1118-1130, December.
    13. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    14. Adolfson, Malin, 2001. "Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 476, Stockholm School of Economics.
    15. Musy, Olivier & Pereau, Jean-Christophe, 2010. "Disinflationary boom in a price-wage spiral model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 152-158, January.
    16. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:125-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 2002. "Alternative sources of the lag dynamics of inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 02-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    18. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Mash, Richard, 2002. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Generalised Calvo-Taylor Model and the Desirability of Inflation vs. Price Level Targeting," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 138, Royal Economic Society.
    20. Lees, Kirdan, 2007. "How large are the gains to commitment policy and optimal delegation for New Zealand?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 959-975, December.
    21. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Mr. Eric Parrado, 2003. "Pricing Policies and Inflation Inertia," IMF Working Papers 2003/087, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.