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Wage Indexation, Inflation Inertia, and the Cost of Disinflation - New version

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  • Javier Gómez

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    Abstract

    A Statement of the Colombian Consitutional Court has mandated wage indexation on the basis of past inflation. A simple model with a wage price system, a real block, and an inflation targeting interest rule is calibrated to resemble price setting in the colombian economy and to analize the differing slope of the output inflation trade off for diferent specifications of wage indexation. The disinflation experiments show that backward looking indexation increases inflation inertia, decreases the effect of monetary policy, and increases the cost of disinflation. Shorter wage contracts and more frequent wage negotiations do not appear to have important effects on the cost of disinflation. Higher central bank credibility and the use of forward looking inflation expectations in wage negotiations decrease the cost of disinflation and may eventually lead to a boom.

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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 198a.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:198a

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    1. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanly Fischer, 1992. "Inflación moderada," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
    2. Fischer, Stanley & Summers, Lawrence H, 1989. "Should Governments Learn to Live with Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 382-87, May.
    3. Esteban Jadresic, 1996. "Wage Indexation and the Cost of Disinflation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 796-825, December.
    4. Laurence Ball & Dean Croushore, 1995. "Expectations and the effects of monetary policy," Working Papers 95-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    5. Laurence Ball, 1990. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price Setting," NBER Working Papers 3555, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rudiger Dornbusch & Stanley Fischer, 1992. "La inflación moderada," Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 5-70, January-J.
    7. Javier Gómez & Juan Manuel Julio, . "Transmission Mechanisms and Inflation Targeting: The Case of Colombia Disinflation," Borradores de Economia 168, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Ball, Laurence & Romer, David, 1989. "Are Prices Too Sticky?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 507-24, August.
    9. Ball, Laurence & Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1991. "Wage Indexation and Discretionary Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1310-19, December.
    10. Guy Meredith & Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Esteban Jadresic, 1996. "Wage Indexation and the Cost of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 96/48, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    13. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1981. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model," NBER Working Papers 0807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1, June.
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