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International Money and Finance

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  • Paul Hallwood

    (University of Connecticut)

  • Ronald MacDonald

    (University of Glasgow)

Abstract

We discuss the effectiveness of pegged exchange rate regimes from an historical perspective, drawing conclusions for their effectiveness today. Starting with the classical gold standard period, we point out that a succession of pegged regimes have ended in failure; except for the first, which was ended by the outbreak of World War I, all of the others we discuss have been ended by adverse economic developments for which the regimes themselves were partly responsible. Prior to World War II the main problem was a shortage of monetary gold that we argue is implicated as a cause of the Great Depression. After World War II, more particularly from the late-1960s, the main problem has been a surfeit of the main international reserve asset, the US dollar. This has led to generalized inflation in the 1970s and into the 1980s. Today, excessive dollar international base money creation is again a problem that could have serious consequences for world economic stability.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2008-02.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2008-02

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Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: Bretton Woods; exchange rate expectations gold standard; new Bretton Woods; realignment expectations; pegged exchange rates; target zone; world economic instability;

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References

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  1. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
  3. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, December.
  4. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton Woods Float: An Impulse-Response Analysis," NBER Working Papers 4169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July.
  6. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "Target Zones and Realignments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 520-36, June.
  7. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
  8. Emanuel-Werner Kohlscheen, 2000. "Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention Activity," Working Papers Series 9, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
  10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  11. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  12. Gabriela Mundaca, 2004. "Modelling Probabilities of Devaluations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 13-37, 02.
  13. Paul Hallwood & Ronald MacDonald & Ian Marsh, 2007. "Did Impending War in Europe Help Destroy the Gold Bloc in 1936? An Internal Inconsistency Hypothesis," Working papers 2007-23, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  14. Hallwood, Paul & Marsh, Ian W. & Scheibe, Jorg, 2006. "An assessment of the case for monetary union or official dollarization in five Latin American countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 52-66, March.
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