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Exchange Market Pressure on the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1925-1931

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Author Info

  • C. Paul Hallwood

    (University of Connecticut)

  • Ian W. Marsh

    (Cass Business School, London, and CEPR)

Abstract

An investigation of exchange market pressure against the pound sterling during the inter-war period. The main findings are that a) the behavior of UK fundamentals relative to those of the USA help to explain exchange market pressure against the pound; b) during the run up to devaluation in September 1931 the monetary authorities in the UK were acting to reduce domestic credit; but that c) additional pressure was brought against the pound from speculative sources. These findings relate to current thinking on the choice of exchange rate regime as even well behaved fundamentals may not be sufficient to sustain a currency on its peg.

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File URL: http://web2.uconn.edu/economics/working/2003-23.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2003-23.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2003-23

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Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
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Related research

Keywords: Bank of England; exchange market pressure; gold standard; devaluation; pegged exchange rates; realignment expectations.;

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References

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  1. Paul Hallwood, C. & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2000. "Realignment expectations and the US dollar, 1890-1897: Was there a 'Peso problem'?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 605-620, December.
  2. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1993. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target-Zone Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 689-712, July.
  4. Darvas, Zsolt, 1998. "Spurious Correlation in Exchange Rate Target Zone Modelling: Testing the Drift Adjustment Method on the US Dollar, Random Walk and Chaos," CEPR Discussion Papers 1890, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1993. "Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 763-793, May.
  7. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1, June.
  9. Evan Tanner, 2001. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 2.
  10. Officer Lawrence H., 1993. "Gold-Point Arbitrage and Uncovered Interest Arbitrage under the 1925-1931 Dollar-Sterling Gold Standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 98-127, January.
  11. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  12. Marcus Miller & Paul Weller, 1991. "Currency Bands, Target Zones, and Price Flexibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 184-215, March.
  13. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  14. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September.
  15. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
  16. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
  17. Peel, David A & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Covered Interest Rate Arbitrage in the Interwar Period and the Keynes-Einzig Conjecture," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75, February.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:dgr:uvatin:2006112 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Augustine A. Boakye & Hassan Molana, 2007. "Fluctuation in the International Currency Reserves of Less Developed Countries: HIPC vs Non-HIPC," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 203, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  3. repec:dgr:uvatin:2007112 is not listed on IDEAS

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