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Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model

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  • M. Isabel Campos
  • M. Araceli Rodríguez
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    Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers on International Economics and Finance with number 00-05.

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    Handle: RePEc:fda:fdadef:00-05

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    1. Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    2. Söderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from Financial Instruments," Seminar Papers 621, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    3. Juan Ayuso & Maria Perez-Jurado, 1997. "Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 471-484.
    4. Bekaert, G.R.J. & Gray, S.F., 1997. "Target zones and exchange rates: An empirical investigation," Discussion Paper 1997-22, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Gomez-Puig, Marta & Montalvo, JoseG., 1997. "A new indicator to assess the credibility of the EMS," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1511-1535, August.
    6. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    10. Mizrach, Bruce, 1995. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-657, October.
    11. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Paul R. Krugman, 1988. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 2481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
    17. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Morales Vásquez, Daniel, 2011. "Presiones cambiarias en el Perú: Un enfoque no lineal," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 57-71.
    2. Rodríguez López, Mª A., 2002. "Crisis de credibilidad de la peseta en las bandas del SME. Una aplicación del Modelo de Markov con saltos de régimen," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 599-626, Diciembre.

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