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Devaluations and depreciation expectations in the EMS

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  • Juan Ayuso
  • Maria Perez-Jurado
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    Abstract

    This paper proposes a method to estimate separately the size of the expected depreciation in an eventual devaluation of the central parity in the ERM, and the probability assigned by agents to this devaluation occurring in the short run. The proposed method complements the information provided by the jumps observed in market exchange rates around realignments with the information contained in interest rate differentials on the future behaviour of exchange rates. The separation of probability and size allows a richer analysis of the effects of devaluations on exchange rate credibility in the ERM.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368497326967
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 29 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 471-484

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:29:y:1997:i:4:p:471-484

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    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

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    Cited by:
    1. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2005. "ERM effects on currency spot and futures markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 145-163, December.
    2. Campos, M. Isabel & Herrera, Julio & Jimenez-Ridruejo, Zenon, 1999. "Censured Exchange Rates in a Discrete Time Target Zones Model: The Spanish Peseta/Deutsche Mark Case," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa183, European Regional Science Association.
    3. M. Isabel Campos & Zenon Jimenez-Ridruejo, 2003. "Were the peseta exchange rate crises forecastable during target zone period?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1087-1099.
    4. M. Isabel Campos & M. Araceli Rodríguez, . "Crises and Credibility in a Target Zone: A Logit From a Markov-Switching Model," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-05, FEDEA.
    5. M. Isabel Campos & Zenón Jiménez-Ridruejo, . "Were the Peseta Exchange Rate Crises Forecastable During Target Zone Period?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-07, FEDEA.
    6. Heather D. Gibson & Euclid Tsakalotos, 2004. "Capital flows and speculative attacks in prospective EU member states," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(3), pages 559-586, 09.

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