Long-run PPP in a system context: No favorable evidence after all for the U.S., Germany, and Japan
Abstract
In a cointegration analysis of PPP in five-variable system for Germany, Japan, and the U.S., Sideris [Sideris, D., 2006. Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: evidence for the U.S., Germany and Japan. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 16, 143-154] reports three cointegration vectors and concludes that they are consistent with some form of PPP for all three exchange rates. The present paper reconsiders Sideris's three-country analysis with special attention to the specification of deterministic terms in the cointegration testing. In addition, the passage of time since the Sideris paper allows the data set to be extended. The present paper also applies the Johansen approach and longer data set to traditional two-country models for the same exchange rates. In no case is any evidence in favor of PPP found.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.
Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 413-424
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin
Related research
Keywords:References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pantula, Sastry G., 1989. "Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 256-271, August.
- Hali J. Edison & Joseph E. Gagnon & William R. Melick, 1994.
"Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
465, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
- David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
- Sideris, Dimitrios, 2006. "Testing for long-run PPP in a system context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 143-154, April.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997.
"Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend,"
Papers
76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend,"
Econometrics Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
- Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Katarina Juselius, 1999.
"Models and Relations in Economics and Econometrics,"
Discussion Papers
99-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
- Joseph Kargbo, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity and real exchange rate behaviour in Africa," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 169-183.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Allan W. Gregory, 1991.
"Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models,"
Working Papers
811, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-60, July.
- Taylor, Alan & Taylor, Mark, 2004.
"The Purchasing Power Parity Debate,"
Working Papers
04-6, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
- Taylor, Alan M & Taylor, Mark P, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 4495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alan Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," NBER Working Papers 10607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
- Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
- Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W, 1999.
"Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: A Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
- Ian Marsh & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Currency Spillovers and Tri-Polarity: a Simultaneous Model of the US Dollar, German Mark and Japanese Yen," Working Papers wp99-14, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995.
"Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates,"
Handbook of International Economics,
in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688
Elsevier.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
- McCallum, Bennett T., 1996. "International Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195094947, September.
- David O. Cushman, 2000. "The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 591-603, August.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
- Daniele Antonucci & Alessandro Girardi, 2006. "Structural changes and deviations from the Purchasing Power Parity within the euro area," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 185-198.
- Hjelm, Goran & Johansson, Martin W., 2005. "A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 691-703, December.
- Zhenhui Xu, 1999. "The exchange rate and long-run price movements in the US and Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 227-230.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Nam, Kiseok, 2010. "Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-768, October.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:18:y:2008:i:5:p:413-424For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

