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The failure of the monetary exchange rate model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar

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  • David O. Cushman

Abstract

In this paper the validity of the monetary exchange rate model in the long run for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate is examined. The primary test employed is the Johansen (1991) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) cointegration technique. The effects of dummy variables and lag specification on the statistical inference are considered, and Monte Carlo simulations based on the estimated parameters are employed. Despite the use of the longest data set yet for the Canadian case, no evidence is found in favour of the monetary exchange rate model using the Johansen procedures. This result is confirmed by several other cointegration procedures.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Economics Association in its journal Canadian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 33 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 591-603

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Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:33:y:2000:i:3:p:591-603

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  1. Haug, Alfred A & Lucas, Robert F, 1996. "Long-Run Money Demand in Canada: In Search of Stability," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(2), pages 345-48, May.
  2. Cushman, David O. & Sang Sub Lee & Thorgeirsson, Thorsteinn, 1996. "Maximum likelihood estimation of cointegration in exchange rate models for seven inflationary OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 337-368, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Siregar, Reza, 2011. "The Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Survey of Literature," MPRA Paper 28987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Cushman, David O., 2008. "Long-run PPP in a system context: No favorable evidence after all for the U.S., Germany, and Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 413-424, December.
  3. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
  4. Jose Eduardo de A. Ferreira, 2006. "Effects of Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate: A Panel Analysis for a Sample of Industrialised and Emerging Economies," Studies in Economics 0603, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  5. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Liang, Chin-Chia & Yeh, Ming-Liang, 2011. "Examining nonlinear dynamics of exchange rates and forecasting performance based on the exchange rate parity of four Asian economies," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 79-85, March.
  6. Bruce Morley, 2009. "A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, April.

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