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Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples

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Author Info
Marie-Josée Godbout
Simon van Norden

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Abstract

This paper reconsiders several recently published but controversial results about the behaviour of exchange rates. In particular, it explores finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests and shows how these may have affected the conclusions of recent research. It also demonstrates how simple simulation methods may be used to check the robustness of cointegration tests in particular applied settings, and provides information on the potential sources of size distortion in these tests. Three case studies are presented. The first is the literature on cointegration and prediction of nominal spot exchange rates spawned by Baillie and Bollerslev (1989). The second is work on the long-run validity of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, particularly the contributions of MacDonald and Taylor (1993; 1994a). The final case study looks at the evidence presented by Kasa (1992) on common stochastic trends in the international stock market. Our results suggest that Baillie and Bollerslev's results are unaffected by finite-sample problems, but that the opposite is true for the other two case studies.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1997/wp97-1.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 97-1.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:97-1

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Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Gregory, Allan W, 1994. "Testing for Cointegration in Linear Quadratic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 347-60, July.
    Other versions:
  2. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hali J. Edison & Joseph E. Gagnon & William R. Melick, 1994. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," International Finance Discussion Papers 465, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Steven N. Durlauf, 1989. "Output Persistence, Economic Structure, and the Choice of Stabilization Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(1989-2), pages 69-136. [Downloadable!]
  5. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. "The long memory of the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 565-571, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  7. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1993. "The," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 729-43.
  8. Baffes, John, 1994. "Does comovement among exchange rates imply market inefficiency?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 273-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  10. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 709-42. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  19. Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October. [Downloadable!]
  20. GONZALOÊ, Jesus & PITARAKISÊ, Jean-Yves, 1994. "Comovements in Large Systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1994065, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  21. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
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  22. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. " Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-45, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1015-32 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Hali J. Edison & William R. Melick, 1995. "Alternative approaches to real exchange rates and real interest rates: three up and three down," International Finance Discussion Papers 518, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  26. Gonzalo, J. & Lee, T.H., 1995. "Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships," Papers 38, Boston University - Department of Economics.
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  27. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Near observational equivalence and persistence in GNP," Working Papers 94-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Angela Huang, 2004. "Examining finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests for long-run bilateral exchange rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  2. Godbout, M.J. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns," Working Papers 96-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. M. Martin Boyer & Simon van Norden, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Order Flow in the Long Run," CIRANO Working Papers 2006s-07, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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